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南方航空——被外资、民企相追逐的宠儿

时间:2019-07-25

This issue shows you the darling of foreign investment China Southern Airlines.

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Business life and life

Company Name: China Southern Airlines Co. Ltd.

Date of establishment: 1995-03-25; Time to market: 2003-07-25

Company website:

Last week, we analyzed why foreign investors want to buy aviation stocks. In this issue, we look at foreign-funded airline stocks China Southern Airlines. Next, we will have an in-depth understanding of the company from three aspects: stock selection logic, corporate finance, and buying opportunities.

Small observations

Since the end of October last year, the shareholding ratio has been from 40 million shares (less than 1% of circulation) to the highest of 540 million shares in early April this year. Currently, it holds 500 million shares, accounting for 7.07% of circulation. The stock price is from 6 yuan to a maximum of 9.65. The main driver of this round of rising is foreign investment.

China Southern Airlines is the largest airline in China. The number of aircraft, route network and number of flights are the first in the industry and a veritable industry leader. The previous performance introduced the main analysis points of civil aviation in the market supply and demand, oil prices, exchange rates, and then we analyze enterprise logic from four aspects: industry competitiveness, market supply and demand, oil price and exchange rate.

1. Industry Competitiveness

From the perspective of gross profit margin, the gross profit of the company's products is lower than the industry average. The industry's gross profit margin has fallen for three consecutive years since it reached a high point in 15 years. Industry competition has intensified, and the downward trend of the industry's gross profit margin has not been curbed. However, China Southern Airlines declined last year. The slowdown has risen in the first quarter of this year. It is necessary to observe whether the peak season (summer) of the industry in the third quarter is still rising, and determine the emergence of the inflection point of China Southern Airlines' competitiveness.

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2. Market supply and demand

xx根据南航的ASK与RPK的增速对比可以发现,目前南航的供需增长基本一致,客座率稳定在82%左右,客单公里收益维持在0.49元,显示出市场需求和企业供给的平衡性,进一步分析,最近4年市场供需关系整体处于供不应求的状态,行业景气度仍然旺盛,预计能维持10%以上的供需增长率。

供需机遇主要是,北京第二机场大兴机场完成建设后,南航和东航将占据40%的时刻份额,对业绩形成利好。

小演百科

供给侧:ASK可用座位公里,飞行公里数乘以可出售座位数

需求侧:RPK旅客周转量,飞行公里数乘以所载运乘客数量

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3.油价和汇率的影响

根据上期我们知道,油价对于南航的影响最为明显。油价走势受到需求预期,美国石油管道投产进度,OPEC减产,伊朗制裁等因素的影响,波动较大,特别是上周OPER宣布延长减产决定(到2020年3月31日),市场不涨反跌,说明油价由于伊朗问题导致油价上涨的动力在减弱,预计布伦特油价不会出现大幅上涨的可能,特别是还有明年特朗普竞选连任所需要的低油价(不影响选民生活成本增加)。

汇率预计在主要受到贸易战和美联储降息预期的影响。

贸易战必定是坎坷曲折的;

降息,昨晚发布的非农数据说明美国经济动力仍然强劲,用于预测联邦利率的联邦基金期货预示仍然有25个基点的降息可能

XXIt is expected that the second half of the year will be dominated by large fluctuations below 7.

Both are relatively negative for China Southern Airlines and are still controllable.

4. Small observations

The tax reduction and fee reduction policy has reduced the cost of China Southern Airlines by 1.47 billion. The stock market has maintained steady growth. Beijing Second Airport has increased the market revenue and profit expectations of China Southern Airlines. Oil prices and exchange rates are expected to maintain controllable fluctuations. A comprehensive analysis of China Southern's 19-year growth will continue. And there may be more than expected.

Look at the company's financial statements, from the five aspects of profitability, growth, gold content, operations, debt repayment, etc. analyze whether the company has obvious minefields!

The industry selected 7 corporate data: Air China, China Southern Airlines, Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Jixiang Airlines, and Haihang Holdings.

From the perspective of profitability, the company ranks lower in the industry, but China Southern Airlines has risen against the market in the face of declining profitability in the industry. Due to the oil price increase and the depreciation of the exchange rate in 2018, the industry's profitability has been greatly reduced. China Southern Airlines also Did not escape a robbery.

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Small performance rating: Samsung

2. Growth (

From the perspective of the company's revenue and profit, the company's revenue growth of 10% in the last two years also shows that the market analyzed in the previous chapter is still in short supply. It is expected that the revenue will remain above 10% for 19 years. Speed up. From the perspective of deducting non-net profit, there was a significant improvement in the first quarter. It is expected that the performance will be under pressure due to exchange rate and oil price in the second quarter! The third quarter will be improved, and the summer peak season will be superimposed, and the performance will be released.

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Small performance rating: Samsung

3. Gold content

xx行业的黄金含量非常好,这与行业商品的销售特征有关。 (先买票,然后再提供航空服务)

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性能评级较低:三星

4.运营能力

账户和库存都受到行业销售特征和供需关系的影响。整个行业非常好,南航的整体管理水平还有待提高!

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性能评级较低:三星

5.偿付能力

民航业是典型的重资产业。中国南方航空目前的总负债率为73.91%,仅次于东方航空。进口飞机数量仍然是全国第一。由于大型国有企业的特点和良好的现金流,偿债能力对公司债券收益率几乎没有影响,所以不必过于担心。

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性能评级较低:三星

总体评价:三星

从企业分析的角度来看,南航有一定的业绩保证,但是否能够保持高速增长,存在一定的疑虑。预计小申将在2019年保持10%的增长,目前是长期稳定的投资目标。

我的意见仅供朋友沟通,分享是一种态度,不构成投资建议!

风险:

1.经济衰退影响航空需求

油价大幅上涨,汇率大幅下跌

3.安全事件

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